Barack Obama will have to choose between continuing military operations lost forward in the Middle East, or fund space exploration. It will be a strategic choice for America, but also a choice for Europe. At this level, we should speak of a choice of civilization. The Committee appointed by Barack Obama to evaluate the U.S. program of human spaceflight and human exploration of the solar system has already made its initial conclusions before the official presentation of his report to the White House August 31. This committee is chaired by Norman Augustine, former CEO of defense group Lockheed Martin, the group with known policy implications of buying military equipment from the Pentagon. The conclusions are simple: the current state budget of NASA, the goal of returning man to the moon, a springboard to Mars is out of reach.

This objective was realized by the Constellation Program arrested in January 2004 by GW Bush. It was at that time to make a new launcher and capsule for 2008, for the first manned lunar mission by 2014. From 2020, NASA should establish a permanent base on the Moon, very likely springboard for a first human flight to Mars after 2030.

For this, an industrial program was launched under the auspices of NASA, to carry 4 to 6 people and all the necessary equipment. It has two heavy launchers, Ares-1 and Ares-5, 25 and capable of carrying 71 tons; a manned capsule, Orion, to the interior 2.5 times greater than that of Apollo, finally, a lunar landing module and re-launch, Altair. Ares 1-Earth orbit the manned capsule, the Ares-2 lunar landing module and equipment logistics. Once secured, Orion and Altair would undertake the journey to lunar orbit, which will detach the module and its occupants to land on the Moon and of course also be able to leave.

We argued here that the delay would inevitably Europe in space, faced with such a program. But it was not counting on the technical difficulties encountered by NASA. The Ares-1 launcher is unlikely to be operational before 2017 or 2018: numerical simulations are afraid of shaking and excessive roll during takeoff and climb. The test flight of the first floor has been postponed to the end of this year and not later. Will rely much less several more years for the development of Ares-5. NASA has pushed back to October 2009 the first test flight of the first stage of the Ares-1 rocket. It would probably take ten years more for the heavy launcher Ares-5 is developed. This should extend to 2030 the return of American crews to the moon. No even an approximate date on Mars is now considered.

Many commentators in the United States and Europe find it very reasonable. Why spend good money for human planetary explorations with high risk and without obvious benefits. Better would be limited to space science, much more useful to observe the effect of climate change on Earth. In human spaceflight, would be better in the next decade to maintain the International Space Station (STIs) by giving finally a link with Earth reliable to replace the shuttle end of life and the couple Russian Soyuz / Progress with limited performance.